THE STUCK PLAN FOR IRAQ

Speaking of "Stuck", many of you have asked me what my thoughts are on Iraq. I'd love for our troops to be out as soon as possible, but morally I don't want us to break it and leave. Where is the answer? I'm not sure anyone is really out there listening, but since there are so many candidates trying to outline their leadership skills before the primaries, let's toss this out and see if it gets any play:

THE STUCK PLAN FOR IRAQ

1. Define the Enemy
2. Enact a Playground Rules Strategy
3. Enlist (Get) help to Secure Borders
4. Win Hearts and Minds (REALLY)
5. Build a Transition Timetable
6. Engage the Enablers
   

1. Define the Enemy
The first step towards winning a war (or more accurately prior to starting a war) is to define the enemy. As clearly and distinctly as possible.

There will always be terrorists in the Middle-East just as there are in our country. We can’t win a war against terror, any more than we can win a war against hate, anger, evil, or vindictiveness.
In this conflict, terrorists and freedom fighters can’t be defined by their uniforms or by which side of the river they stand. So our enemy is not “Terror”.

Defining the enemy lets the enemy (& allies) know our specific target. Clearly defining the enemy lessens the fear (in the streets of Iraq). Clearly defining the enemy increases allies.

Can anyone say it? "The enemy of a free Iraq is..."

The problem is that no one is willing to define the enemy. This allows fluidity in the tactics. Anyone can be an enemy or an Allie depending on where the tactical wind blows. Tell me who you think the enemy is. The report I get out of Baghdad is that snipers and bombers who have been captured or killed were identified as: Syrians, Iranians, Al-Qaeda, Bathists, Shiite, Sunni, Kurds, Insurgents, etc. Just about everybody in the region.

IED components (roadside bombs) had components from:
Iran, Iraq, Syria, Pakistan, India, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, France, Germany, US, Mexico, China, Russia, Japan, Taiwan, Israel, and Korea.

I'm certainly not the best person to define the enemy, but to say "insurgents" only makes execution of the strategy tougher for our military, contractors, and Iraq's fighters. The Generals agree that Al-Qaeda (and for that matter Iran) is just a small part of the problem.

Bottom line is that all sides in this "civil" war fight us as they kill each other. If we can't easily define the enemy then we need to move to step 2:


2. Enact a Playground Rules Strategy. When children fight over playground turf, the options seem simple. Pick a side, split em up, sit them down together and find a resolution, or go home. Committing to any one of these strategies simplifies the process in the minds of all combatants and "interested parties". Pick one. Any. But pick one. Please?

3. Enlist (Get) help to Secure Borders
We went to the world and asked for help for invasion forces with limited success. But now the situation is different. We're not asking other nations to invade, but to help rescue Iraq. It's in the best interest of anyone who sells to, buys from, or lives in the Mideast. Now is the time to go to the world again. Our message this time, “Yes, we made mistakes but the truth NOW is that the Iraqi people are rebuilding their country. Many opposing factions want to spread death and prevent a free Iraq. We need your help to secure her borders during a defined period while they rebuild their government and Military forces.

If we make it clear that greed (and oil) are not our goals, then gathering several hundred thousand international troops can truly give Iraq some time to solve it's problems. The troops would act as border guards only around a tighter, but ever expanding geography. Not running missions, not driving down corridors of IEDs. Just keeping groups apart and others out. Certainly Iran would offer troops and we should encourage their use. It's a world stage. Let's invite others to be the heroes with us.

4. Win Hearts and Minds (REALLY)
If there’s one thing the U.S. does better than anyone on the planet: Marketing. We can entice millions of advertising-savvy American consumers to run to the store for the latest incarnation of Diet Coke or to dial their phones till their fingers bleed so they can vote for a pitchy dawg on American Idol.
Few will argue that many countries rush to embrace our culture because its youth is exposed to a taste of the amenities and luxuries that a democratic country can bring.

People will align with and fight for a cause that feeds their children and keeps them from harm. The martyr’s perfect afterlife is only attractive because it appears more easily attainable then safe streets, food, and freedom from oppression.

Fear and uncertainty fills the minds of today’s Iraqi. Is the local policeman a friend or foe? Because I am Sunni I am a target. Because he is Kurdish, he is my enemy. Who is in control? Where is my allegiance and if I align today will I be hunted tomorrow?

Let's bring those marketing experts into play. Let's fill the airwaves with slickly produced, perfectly targeted campaigns to accomplish a 15 - 25% increase in supporters of a free Iraq. Let's find that one charismatic Iraqi leader (heck for that matter, let's manufacture one) and use our modern powers of stealth and viral marketing to set him apart from, and above us. In other words, let's give them a viable third party candidate. Someone we appear not to endorse, but tolerate. There's too much baggage associated with the US brand.


5. Build AND SHARE a Transition Timetable
Old argument? Maybe not. We all know that behavior can be changed with timetables. Curfews for teens. Tax time for adults. If the message is delivered properly (see item 4 above) then the target market will be the millions of Iraqis that don’t want to die.
Goals, people. Without goals and sub-goals we just have bureaucracy without control. An uncontrolled bureaucracy is called anarchy. If an Iraqi citizen knew that the US would leave by the end of July, then he would have to start making some decisions regarding his survival: Pick a side, move out, or ride it out and possibly die. I think that would be a bit of an incentive to me to act.

The argument has always been if we lay down a date for withdrawal then "the bad guys" will just wait around until we leave. What is missing from that argument is what "the good guys" in Iraq will do during that same period. There is no incentive for them to wait around to be slaughtered or oppressed.

Today, the choice is to fight along side us or hang-out and let the US do the work. The easier (and less painful choice) is usually made. Once we define that the choice is fight, flee, or die, then watch out. Sign-em up.

6. Engage the Enablers
It’s no secret that some factions in Iran, Syria, and other groups are either supporting, or encouraging a portion of the hostilities within Iraq. A border is not truly secure unless both sides deem it so. We must negotiate, encourage, and provide incentives to these neighbors to “play nice”. These countries can be shown that a stable Iraq is in their best interest.

Engaging the enablers also means finding credible mediators to sit with religious, tribal, and ethnic leaders in the region. When it comes to these folks, their history has always been "Engage me and I will talk. Ignore me and I will fight."

If our goal is not to use our presence to protect our interests in the oil economy and it's not to entice Iran to battle, then I believe 6 steps can help us create a self-sustaining Iraq in short order.

6 steps. Talk amongst yourselves. - dave stuck